Sequential Malmquist Indices of Productivity Growth: An Application to OECD Industrial Activities

The paper applies both the standard DEA methodology with contemporaneous frontiers and DEA with sequential frontiers to study changes in productivity and efficiency in manufacturing for a sample of eleven OECD countries over a twenty-year period. It uses a decomposition of the industrial Malmquist productivity indices to locate the sources of productivity growth: 'technical progress' and 'catching up.' The alternative indices are interrelated in a unifying framework that provides an interpretation to their difference. We argue that for manufacturing industries, in which technological regress is unlikely to occur, DEA with sequential frontiers provides a more adequate measure for the contribution of technical changes than standard DEA.     

Optimising a Probabilistic Model of the Development of Play in Soccer

We present a probabilistic model based on the one developed by Hernández Mendo and Anguera (Revista de Psicologíca Social, 16(1), 71–93, 2001). Here we have tried to break down the interaction contexts that the opposing teams are able to generate and transform during the game. We are aware that a given player or team does not produce consistent behaviour in similar situations. However, a degree of uncertainty is assumed to exist regarding whether the results obtained are a specific function of the analysis used. In order to carry out this research a category system which optimized that used in the previous model was developed. This system should enable the interaction between teams to be observed within the actual play of a soccer game. A lag sequential analysis was performed on the basis of a coding of the behavioural flow. After describing the behavioural patterns obtained a probabilistic model of the development of play in soccer is proposed.     

The differing roles of success drivers across sequential channels: An application to the motion picture industry

In several product categories, it is typical to release products sequentially to different markets and customer segments. Conventional knowledge holds that the roles of various product success drivers do not differ significantly across these sequential channels of distribution. The authors examine sequential distribution channels within the motion picture industry and develop a model that proposes that such differences exist between a primary (short- and long-term theatrical box office) and a sequential (video rental) channel. The authors test their model with a sample of 331 motion pictures released in theaters and on video during 1999–2001 using partial least squares. Results reveal differences in the impact of success factors across channels. For example, cultural familiarity enhances box office success but relates negatively to video rental success, and distribution intensity and date of release enhance box office outcomes but have no impact on rental revenues. Thorsten Hennig-Thurau (tht@medien.uni-weimar.cie) is a professor of marketing and media research at Bauhaus-University of Weimar’s Media School and Honorary Visiting Professor of Movie Marketing in the Faculty of Management of Cass Business School, City University London. He has published articles in theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of Service Research, theInternational Journal of Electronic Commerce, theJournal of Interactive Marketing, Psychology & Marketing, and theJournal of Consumer Affairs, among others. He is author of the monograph Relationship Marketing, which has been translated into Chinese. He is member of the editorial board of three journals and serves as reviewer for theJournal of Marketing andMarketing Science. He has won eight Best Article and Best Paper Awards, including the Overall Best Paper Award of the 2005 American Marketing Association Summer Educators’ Conference and the 2002JSR Excellence in Service Research Award. Mark B. Houston (houstonmb@missouri.edu) (PhD, Arizona State University) is the David and Judy O’Neal MBA Professor at the University of Missouri-Columbia. His research on strategy, interfirm relationships, and innovation has been published in leading journals, including theJournal of Marketing, theJournal of Marketing Research, theJournal of Consumer Research, Marketing Science, theJournal of the Academy of Marketing Science, and theJournal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis. He cochaired the 2005 American Marketing Association (AMA) Summer Educators’ Conference and served for two terms as vice president of the AMA’s Technology and Marketing Special Interest Group. Gianfranco Walsh (g.walsh@strath.ac.uk) received his MPhil degree from UMIST (England) and PhD (2001) and Habilitation (2004) degrees from Hanover (Germany). His research focuses on consumer behavior, corporate reputation, and e-commerce. He has presented numerous papers at international conferences. His work has been published in, among others, theAcademy of Marketing Science Review, the International Journal of Electronic Commerce, theJournal of Consumer Affairs, theJournal of Interactive Marketing, theJournal of Macromarketing, and theJournal of Marketing Management. He is the Chair of Marketing and Electronic Retailing at the Institute for Management, University of Koblenz-Landau.     

中国企业人力资本产权变革三次浪潮评析

人力资本股权化是现代企业产权制度变革的基本逻辑和大趋势.如何在实际操作层面解决"两权分离"悖论,不仅是现代公司制度运作和发展的主题,也是中国企业人力资本产权制度变革的逻辑起点、核心问题和主要矛盾.1992年以来,中国企业人力资本产权变革经历了三次浪潮.目前,对于中国企业来说,实现人力资本股权化、稚行股权激励计划,已经不是什么"理论"问题而是如何实际"行动"的问题.基于人力资本产权制度变革积极推行股权激励计划,是未来中国企业必然而明智的战略选择.     

股权分置改革前后上市公司绩效变化的研究

选取了177家股改公司,通过对股改前后绩效的分析发现:每股净资产在股改前后不存在显著差异;每股收益、资产利润率、净资产收益率均表现为股改后第一季度指标值显著高于股改前的指标值、股改后第二和三季度的指标值显著低于股改前的指标值、股改后第四季度的指标值与股改前的指标值没有显著差异,并对该结论进行了简单分析。     

On estimating the reliability after sequentially estimating the mean: The exponential case

Sequential estimation problems for the mean parameter of an exponential distribution has received much attention over the years. Purely sequential and accelerated sequential estimators and their asymptotic second-order characteristics have been laid out in the existing literature, both for minimum risk point as well as bounded length confidence interval estimation of the mean parameter. Having obtained a data set from such sequentially designed experiments, the paper investigates estimation problems for the associatedreliability function. Second-order approximations are provided for the bias and mean squared error of the proposed estimator of the reliability function, first under a general setup. An ad hoc bias-corrected version is also introduced. Then, the proposed estimator is investigated further under some specific sequential sampling strategies, already available in the literature. In the end, simulation results are presented for comparing the proposed estimators of the reliability function for moderate sample sizes and various sequential sampling strategies.     

关于我国股市知情交易水平及其性质的实证研究

基于Easley、Hvidkjaer和O'Hara的序贯交易模型与PIN (Probability of Information-based Trading,基于信息的交易比率)指标对我国股市知情交易情况进行的实证分析研究结果表明:(1)我国股市信息不对称程度较高;(2)由于知情交易者利用坏消息的能力有限且流动性交易水平较高,我国股市知情交易比率并不太高;(3)知情交易比率与后续期间股票收益率的负相关性,表明我国股市中市场操控型知情交易比较严重.因此,我们认为应进一步完善上市公司的信息披露制度,降低投资者之间的信息不对称程度,同时确保流动性投资者参与股市的积极性;在引入做空机制时应慎重考虑和综合权衡,避免不适当地增加流动性投资者所承担的逆向选择风险水平,降低股市的流动性供给和风险分散功能;证券市场监管部门应进一步加强对异常交易活动的监控,加大对市场操纵行为的打击力度,以确保我国证券市场的健康发展.     

转型期中国土地利用的时序优化与空间释放

随着中国经济快速发展和人口集聚，建设用地需求快速增加，土地供需矛盾日益突出，资源保护和管理的压力逐渐加大。中国经济已步入新常态，经济结构转型倒逼土地供应结构优化调整。发达国家城镇化发展阶段起步较早，在土地节约集约利用与管理方面积累了宝贵经验。结合中国城市土地利用现状，借鉴美国、英国、德国等发达国家土地利用与管理经验，可从盘活存量土地、提高土地供给精准度、建立多元化供地机制三方面实现土地节约集约利用及有效管理，促进供给侧结构性改革。     

Granting preferential market access in services sequentially versus jointly with goods

Despite the cost and resource‐effectiveness of joint trade negotiations and complementarities between goods and services‐trade flows, more than 12% of the 132 WTO‐notified services‐trade agreements (STAs) in force until August 2015 were entered into effect sequentially to goods‐trade accords. This stylised fact motivates our study of the determinants of joint versus sequential negotiation/accession of goods and services accords, a subject hitherto unexplored in the growing literature on the determinants of STA membership. Our results suggest larger marginal effects of fundamental economic, geographic, institutional, doing business and services regulatory factors on the propensity of joint negotiation/accession compared to STA formation alone. Moreover, cultural‐distance variables are only found to affect the likelihood of joint preferential liberalisation of goods and services trade, without influencing STA‐only membership.     

Internal and external factors in innovation persistence

This paper contributes to the analysis of the persistence of innovation activities, as measured by total factor productivity (TFP), and explores its internal and external determinants stressing its path-dependent characteristics. The external conditions, namely the quality of local knowledge pools and the strength of the Schumpeterian rivalry, along with the internal conditions (the actual levels of dynamic capabilities, as proxied by wage levels and firm size) exert a specific and localised effect upon the persistent introduction of innovations. A multiple transition probability matrixes (MTPMs) approach has been implemented to capture the contingent effects of external factors on long-term innovation persistence. The empirical analysis of the dynamics of firm-level TFP for a sample of approximately 7000 Italian manufacturing companies observed during the years 1996–2005 is based on both the comparison of different transition probability matrixes and on dynamic discrete choice panel data models. The evidence provided by the test of MTPMs in sub-periods suggests that innovation persistence is path-dependent, as opposed to past-dependent.